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2006 Gold Key NFL and NCAA Football write-ups
2006 NFL AND NCAA FOOTBALL PLAYS
THURSDAY SEPTEMBER 28, 2006
Gold Key Play, SOUTH CAROLINA +14 Over Auburn (NCAA, 7:30 et) (Weather) (WINNER)
The Gamecocks of the SEC East Division under their second year Head Coach Steve Spurrier enter this contest at 3-1 Straight Up, and 2-1 Against The Spread this season. They've handled lesser rivals Mississippi State on the Road, and Wofford and Florida Atlantic at Home. The Gamecocks showed little in Game Two at Home to Georgia as Field Goal Dogs in an 18-0 SU loss, but may have more to show this evening versus another SEC rival on their Home turf. Positive trends include 8-2 ATS as Dogs off a Double Digit ATS win, and 5-1 ATS as Home Dogs off back-to-back SU wins.
The Top Five ranked Tigers of the SEC West Division under their long-tenured Head Coach Tommy Tuberville are 4-0 SU, and 2-1-1 ATS on the season. They got by Lsu 7-3 SU at Home in a Push ATS, and other than having to face Florida and Georgia at Home, they have a fairly easy schedule to run the slate SU. The Tigers are coming off a disappointing Home win over Buffalo on Saturday, and look to step it up here on the Road versus a Conference rival tonight. RB Irons is listed as Probable for this event. This game can be closer than expected.
The line overnited at Tigers -14. We'll take those points and the Home Gamecocks here tonight in a Gold Key Play.
--Rich Green
410-536-5111 if you need help
SUNDAY SEPTEMBER 24
Gold Key Play, MINNESOTA +4 Over Chicago (NFL, 1 et) (Dome) (WINNER)
The Vikings of the NFC North under their new Head Coach Brad Childress came through for Gold Key Members with a 19-16 Straight Up and Against The Spread win as 4.5 point Dogs at the Redskins in Game One. They came through again for Gold Key Members last week when they helped the Under cover ATS at Home over the Panthers. While the Vikings face a powerful Division rival today, they have done no wrong and deserve a Gold Key Play on as Home Dogs. Positive trends include 3-1 ATS at Home in this Series, 10-1 ATS Home off a SU Dog win, and 3-1 ATS as Home Dogs after 2002.
The Bears enter this Division match up under their third-year Head Coach Lovie Smith at 2-0 SU and ATS. They blew out the Packers on the Road in Game One. Then they came back for Gold Key Members last week with a 34-7 SU and ATS blowout at Home over the Lions as 7.5 point Favorites. While the Bears are a strong team that must be respected, they will have to prove themselves today on the Road in Division Play. Negative trends include 1-8 ATS versus opponents off back to back SU wins in September, and 1-6 ATS off a SU Home win over the Lions.
The line overnited at Bears -3 and quickly moved up. We'll take those points and the Home Vikings to cover for us here today in a Gold Key Play.
Gold Key Play, TAMPA BAY +3.5 Over Carolina (NFL, 1 et) (Weather) (WINNER)
The Buccaneers of the NFC South under their fifth-year Head Coach Jon Gruden are 0-2 SU and ATS on the year, and have shown nothing on Offense. Out of a tough NFC Division, their Playoff hopes for the season will be dashed if they don't turn it around quickly, especially against Division rivals. Both teams in this event today face the same reckoning. Positive trends for the Bucs include 12-3 ATS as Home Dogs, and 7-1 ATS in September off a Division game versus an opponent with Revenge.
The Panthers of the NFC South under their fifth-year Head Coach John Fox were picked by most pundits to win the NFC this season, and deservedly so. They showed weakness in Game One at Home to the Falcons in a 20-6 SU loss as six point Favorites. Then they lost 16-13 SU at the Vikings last week as 2.5 point Favorites. The Panthers have suffered through some major injuries, although WR Smith has been upgraded to Questionable after practicing this week. Negative trends include 0-6 ATS off a SU and ATS loss in September, and the Favorite in this Series is 2-8 ATS lately.
The line overnited at Panthers -3 and added the hook. We'll take those points and the Home Bucs to cover for us here today in a Gold Key Play.
--Rich Green
410-536-5111 if you need help
SATURDAY SEPTEMBER 23
Gold Key Play, PURDUE +2.5 Over Minnesota (NCAA, Noon et) (Weather) (WINNER, OUTRIGHT)
The Boilermakers of the Big Ten Conference under their long-tenured Head Coach Joe Tiller enter Conference Play at 3-0 SU, and 0-2 ATS. Both non-covers were SU Home wins as Double Digit Favorites, and this is their fourth Home event in a row to start the season. While the Boilermakers were the most disappointing team in the Colleges last year and haven't blown out lesser competition this season, playing the role of Home Dog in Conference Play is a horse of a different color. Weather may also become a factor. Positive trends include 3-0 ATS as Home Dogs, and 6-1 ATS and 5-1 ATS at Home in this Series.
The Golden Gophers under their long-tenured Head Coach Glen Mason have been all or nothing this year with 44-0 and 62-0 SU wins at Kent and at Home to Temple, along with a 42-17 SU loss at California as 9.5 point Dogs in between. They've had success before as Road Favorites in Coach Mason's reign, and look to start their Conference Play with a win here this afternoon.
The line overnited at Golden Gophers -3 and dropped slightly. We'll take those points and the Home Boilermakers here today in a Gold Key Play.
Gold Key Play, Wisconsin +14 Over MICHIGAN (NCAA, Noon et) (Weather) (Push)
The Badgers of the Big Ten Conference have done no wrong under their new Head Coach Bret Bielema, and stand at 3-0 Straight Up, and 2-0 Against The Spread this season. Both covers ATS were at Home as Double Digit Favorites, with an unlined cupcake in between. The Badgers know they have nothing to lose as heavy Dogs today versus a strong team coming Home off a smashing victory. Their Defense is the key here this afternoon. Positive trends include 12-2 ATS as greater than TouchDown Dogs off a SU win, 7-2 ATS as Road Dogs, and 4-0 ATS OverAll and 4-1 ATS on the Road in this Series. This game can be closer than expected.
The Top Ten ranked Wolverines enter this Conference match up under long-tenured Head Coach Lloyd Carr at 3-0 SU, and 1-2 ATS this year. They whooped the Irish outright on the Road as almost TouchDown Dogs last week in an event where the Dog has covered 18 out of the last 22 meetings, and now return Home to one of the largest crowds in sports. The Wolverines have a great tradition, and figure to return to the Bowls this season for the 32nd year in a row. Negative trends for this game include 2-9 ATS as Favorites off a SU win as Dogs, 4-10 ATS as Home Favorites, and the Favorite in this Series is 0-4 ATS.
The line overnited and closed at Wolverines -14. We'll take those points and the Road Badgers here today in a Gold Key Play.
Gold Key Play, CALIFORNIA -8 Over Arizona State (NCAA, 3:30 et) (Weather) (WINNER)
The Top Twenty-Five ranked Golden Bears of the Pacific Ten Conference under their fifth-year Head Coach Jeff Tedford were whooped as Field Goal Favorites at Tennessee to start the season, then rebounded to win easily at Home in their last two games. They should be prepared for the beginning of Conference Play today. Positive trends for the Bears include 8-2 ATS OverAll and 4-0 ATS at Home in this Series. Hopefully they won't need the Band to be on the field to win this one on the last play.
The Top Twenty-Five ranked Sun Devils under their sixth-year Head Coach Dirk Koetter enter this Conference match up with a perfect 3-0 SU and 2-0 ATS record to start the season. This will be their first test as their two lined events were both as heavy Favorites. The Sun Devils look to reverse recent history today in this Series. Negative trends include 0-5 ATS in the second of back to back Road games, 1-9 ATS as Dogs versus opponents off a SU win, and the Sun Devils are 6-13 ATS as Road Dogs during Coach Koetter's tenure.
The line overnited at Golden Bears -7 and moved up. We'll go with the Home Bears to cover for us here today in a Gold Key Play.
--Rich Green
410-536-5111 if you need help
THURSDAY SEPTEMBER 21
Gold Key Play, Virginia +17 Over GEORGIA TECH (NCAA, 7:30 et) (Weather) (Push)
The Cavaliers of the ACC Coastal Division under their sixth-year Head Coach Al Groh enter this one at 1-2 Straight Up, and 0-3 Against The Spread this season. They've failed miserably on Offense, and need to get themselves straightened out on that side of the ball as Conference Play starts today. The Cavs have no where to go but up, and Conference games especially between Division rivals can be much closer than expected. Positive trends include 3-0 ATS in this Series and Coach Groh is 4-1 ATS in this Series, the Cavs under Coach Groh only failed to cover three games in a row ATS ONCE before this current streak, and they broke that ATS losing skein with a 39-38 SU win at Home over these Yellow Jackets as two TouchDown Dogs back in 2001.
The Yellow Jackets under their fifth-year Head Coach Chan Gailey are 2-1 SU, and 2-0 ATS this season. They played well at Home versus the Irish in Game One, and covered the 7.5 point Dog line in a 14-10 SU loss. The Yellow Jackets put away both Samford and Troy in their last two events, and appear to be in fine fettle here with their fourth Home game in a row to start this year. Negative trends include 2-5 ATS as Double Digit Home Favorites, and the Yellow Jackets have never been better than average at best as Home Favorites during Coach Gailey's tenure.
The line overnited and closed at Yellow Jackets -17. We'll take those points and the Road Cavaliers to cover for us here tonight in a Gold Key Play.
--Rich Green
410-536-5111 if you need help
SUNDAY SEPTEMBER 17
Gold Key Play, CHICAGO -7.5 Over Detroit (NFL, 1 et) (Weather) (WINNER)
The Bears of the NFC North Division under their third-year Head Coach Lovie Smith blew out the Packers on the Road in Game One. Now they return to friendlier confines where they look to continue their win skein versus lower caliber teams out of their own Division. While the serious threat of strong thunderstorms may hold this line down, the Bears should handle their Division rival this afternoon regardless. Positive trends in this Series include 3-0 Against The Spread, and the Favorite is 18-4 ATS. The Bears are 56-5 ATS when they win SU.
The Lions enter this Division match up looking to give their first-year Head Coach Rod Marinelli his first win. Last week they covered the six point Home Dog line ATS in a Straight Up 9-6 loss to the Seahawks. The Lions played well on Defense, but showed little on Offense. Today they get tested on the Road versus a strong opponent in Division Play where every game counts.
The line overnited at Bears -8 and dropped slightly. We'll go with the Home Bears to cover for us here today in a Gold Key Play.
Gold Key Play, Under 37.5 Total Points, Carolina at MINNESOTA (NFL, 1 et) (Dome) (WINNER)
The Panthers of the NFC South under their fifth-year Head Coach John Fox were picked by most pundits to win the NFC this season, and deservedly so. They showed weakness in Game One at Home to the Falcons in a 20-6 SU loss as six point Favorites. The Panthers have lost some important players to injury on both sides of the ball, and this game can be more of a Defensive battle than expected. Positive trends favoring the Under and the Panthers here include 49-27 ATS off a Division event, 23-11 ATS in September, and 24-16 ATS off a Division game loss. WR Smith is now listed as Out today.
The Vikings of the NFC North under their new Head Coach Brad Childress came through for Gold Key Members on Monday Night with a 19-16 Straight Up and ATS win as 4.5 point Dogs at the Redskins. They haven't faired well versus the Panthers lately, but this is a new team with a new attitude. The Vikings seem to be relying on old-style ball control Offense and good Defense this season. Positive trends favoring the Under and the Vikings include 22-13 ATS OverAll, and 13-3 ATS when Home Favorites in this point range.
The Totals line overnited at 37.5. We'll go with the Under here today in a Gold Key Play.
--Rich Green
410-536-5111 if you need help
SATURDAY SEPTEMBER 16
Gold Key Play, VANDERBILT +6 Over Arkansas (NCAA, 12:30 et) (Weather) (WINNER)
The Commodores of the SEC East Division under their fifth year Head Coach Bobby Johnson came through for Gold Key Members last week when they lost 13-10 Straight Up at Alabama as 15 point Dogs to win Against The Spread. So far this season they've competed on the Road at Michigan and at Alabama, a tough start for any team, and covered them both ATS. With out of Division Tennessee State on slate at Home next week, the Commodores should have enough left in them to give the Hogs a tough time here today despite generally performing better on the Road than at Home. Last season they surprised in this Series with a 28-24 SU win on the Road as 10.5 point Dogs.
The Razorbacks enter this Conference match up out of the West Division under their long-tenured Head Coach Houston Nutt. So far this season they were blown out at Home by USC, and then didn't cover the 28.5 point Home Favorite line ATS in a 20-0 SU win over Utah State. The Hogs have failed to reach the Bowls the past two seasons after participating in them the first six years of Coach Nutt's reign, and they need to play better against Conference foes to return.
The line overnited at Razorbacks -6. We'll take those points and the Home Commodores to cover for us here today in a Gold Key Play.
Gold Key Play, Baylor +13.5 Over WASHINGTON STATE (NCAA, 5 et) (Weather) (WINNER)
The Bears out of the Big Twelve Conference, South Division under their fourth year Head Coach Guy Morriss improved last season to 5-6 Straight Up. In Coach Morriss's tenure they are now 19-12-1 Against The Spread as well. The Bears have played well on Defense this year, and have no reason to be looking ahead to Army at Home next week. This event is being played at Seahawks Stadium in Seattle.
The Cougars of the Pacific Ten Conference under their fourth year Head Coach Bill Doba failed for the second straight year to return as Bowlers, and they don't have an easy schedule this season. Last week they blew out Idaho at Home as 18.5 point Favorites, which was only their fourth ATS cover as Home Favorites out of their past 11. Other negative trends include 1-8 ATS before they play Stanford. This game can be closer than expected.
The line overnited at Cougars -13.5. We'll take those points and the Road Bears here today in a Gold Key Play.
Gold Key Play, Florida -3.5 Over TENNESSEE (NCAA, 8 et) (Weather) (Loser)
The Gators of the SEC East Division broke a three year 0-3 Straight Up and Against The Spread Bowl skein when they won SU and ATS over Iowa in the Outback Bowl under their first year Head Coach Urban Meyer last season. So far this year they have easily handled two lesser rivals at Home SU and ATS. The Gators should be looking forward to their first Conference event today, and have no reason to be thinking about facing lesser Conference rival Kentucky at Home next week. Positive trends include 10-2 ATS in their first Road game, and 5-1 ATS on the Road in this Series.
The Volunteers enter this Division match up at 2-0 SU after getting by Air Force at Home 31-30 SU as 20.5 point Dogs last week. We have followed Coach Phil Fulmer over his 13-plus seasons at Knoxville, and his teams generally follow certain ATS patterns. While we mostly disdain Road Favorites in Conference Play in any sport, negative trends for the Vols here include 1-14 ATS at Home versus above average Conference opponents, 2-45 ATS when they lose SU, 0-4 ATS at Home with Revenge, and 1-11 ATS at Home OverAll.
The line overnited at Gators -3 and moved up. We'll go with the Road Gators to cover for us here tonight in a Gold Key Play.
--Rich Green
410-536-5111 if you need help
MONDAY SEPTEMBER 11
Gold Key Play, Minnesota +4.5 Over WASHINGTON (NFL, 7 et) (Weather) (WINNER, OUTRIGHT)
The Vikings have a new Head Coach this season in Brad Childress, and they might be a surprise out of the NFC North Division. They played well during the Pre-Season, especially on Defense. The Vikings have a fairly easy schedule after Game Seven at Home to the Patriots, and look to return to the Playoffs this season.
The Redskins out of the NFC East under long-tenured NFL Head Coach Joe Gibbs finished last season at 11-7 Straight Up and Against The Spread, including a Playoff win at the Buccaneers, and a Playoff loss at the Seahawks. They have been especially strong to finish the past two years ATS with Coach Gibbs back, and should be a factor again this season. The Redskins showed little during their 0-4 SU and ATS Pre-Season, and might just need a game or two to get on the right track. RB Portis is now listed as Probable, although he may not start. Negative trends include 0-5 ATS on Monday Night at Home.
The line overnited at Redskins -5 and dropped. We'll take those points and the Road Vikings here tonight in a Gold Key Play.
--Rich Green
410-536-5111 if you need help
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