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2005 Gold Key NFL and NCAA Football write-ups
2004 NFL AND NCAA FOOTBALL PLAYS
THURSDAY SEPTEMBER 8
Gold Key Play, Oklahoma State -13.5 Over FLORIDA ATLANTIC (NCAA, 7:05 et) (Weather) (WINNER)
The Cowboys of the Big Twelve Conference have a new Head Coach in Mike Gundy this season. Last year they finished at 7-5 Straight Up and Against The Spread, including a blowout loss as Bowlers versus Ohio State under then Head Coach Les Miles. In their opener the Cowboys got by Montana State 15-10 at Home in an unlined event. That should give them a wake-up call for tonight's game. Regardless that the line has dropped, the Cowboys are heads and shoulders above their competition this evening, and they should take advantage of facing the second of three cupcakes to start their year.
The Owls entered the Sun Belt Conference this season under Head Coach Howard Schnellenberger after finishing last season at 9-3 SU and 3-4 ATS. They covered the 29 point Dog line ATS in their opening 30-19 SU loss at Kansas. But seven of those points came on the last play of the game, and they don't figure to be taken lightly by the Cowboys tonight on National TV. This game is being played at Dolphins Stadium in Miami instead of Lockhart Stadium in Ft. Lauderdale, their regular crib.
The line overnited at Cowboys -17 and dropped. We'll lay the Road wood here tonight and go with the Cowboys in a Gold Key Play.
--Rich Green
410-536-5111 if you need help
MONDAY SEPTEMBER 5
Gold Key Play, Under 38.5 Total points, Miami at FLORIDA STATE (NCAA, 8:05 et) (Weather) (WINNER)
The Seminoles of the Atlantic Coast Conference under iconic Head Coach Bobby Bowden finished last season at 9-3 Straight Up, and 5-7 Against The Spread. They won and covered over West Virginia in the Gator Bowl. Coach Bowden and the 'Noles get another crack at the 'Canes, and they look to improve on their 1-6 ATS OverAll and 0-3 ATS Home record lately versus that State Rival. Incredibly enough, they figure to become Bowl bound for the 15th consecutive season. The 'Noles have improved on Defense, and this game might just be lower scoring than expected.
The Hurricanes enter this Conference match up under their fifth year Head Coach Larry Coker after finishing last season at 9-3 SU and 7-5 ATS. They won and covered over Florida in the Peach Bowl, 27-10 as 3.5 point Favorites. The 'Canes started and finished last season with excellent Defensive Play, which they will need here tonight to continue their success versus the 'Noles as they seek their sixth SU win in a row against them.
The Totals line overnited at 40 and dropped. We'll go with the Under here tonight in a Gold Key Play.
--Rich Green
410-536-5111 if you need help
SATURDAY SEPTEMBER 3
Gold Key Play, Northern Illinois +19 Over MICHIGAN (NCAA, 3:30 et) (Weather) (WINNER)
The Huskies of the Mid-American Conference under long-tenured Head Coach Joe Novak finished last regular season at 8-3 Straight Up, and 6-4 Against The Spread. Then they won the Silicon Valley Classic Bowl, 34-21 SU as two point Dogs over Troy State. Although they have lost key Players on both sides of the ball, this is a proud program that has a history of showing up for every event. Positive trends include 5-2 ATS in opening Road games, and 8-2 ATS in the first of back-to-back Road games. An old Handicapper's Theory is to play ON any Bowl Winner in their first appearance as Dogs.
The Wolverines of the Big Ten Conference under their long-tenured Head Coach Lloyd Carr completed the 2004 regular season at 9-2 SU, and 4-7 ATS. They covered the TouchDown Dog line in a 38-37 SU loss to Texas in the Rose Bowl. The Wolverines show a strong returning class of Lettermen, and figure to be tough again this year. This game can be closer than expected.
The line overnited at Wolverines -18.5 and moved up. We'll take those points and the Road Huskies here today in a Gold Key Play.
Gold Key Play, Air Force +3 Over WASHINGTON (NCAA, 3:30 et) (Weather) (WINNER, OUTRIGHT)
The Falcons of the Mountain West Conference under their 22nd year Head Coach Fisher DeBerry had an off year last season, and finished at 5-6 SU and an Even Stephen 5-5 ATS. Following their two previous losing seasons (in 1989 and 1994), DeBerry coached Falcons teams finished the following season at 8-4-1 SU and 8-4 SU. Positive trends include 6-0 ATS on the Road with rest, and 7-1 ATS in their first Dog role of the season.
The Huskies of the Pacific Ten Conference finished last season at 1-10 SU, and 2-9 ATS. They have a new Head Coach in Tyrone Willingham, and 63 returning Lettermen to rebound from the worst year in school history. The Huskies have no where to go but up. Although this is a new Coaching Staff, negative trends include 1-8-1 ATS in the first of back-to-back Home games, 0-4 ATS as Home Favorites, and 1-6-1 ATS versus non-Conference opponents. This event is being held at QWest Field in Seattle, not Husky Stadium.
The line overnited at Huskies -2 and moved up. We'll take those points and the Road Falcons here today in a Gold Key Play.
Gold Key Play, CLEMSON +1.5 Over Texas A&M (NCAA, 8 et) (Weather) (WINNER, OUTRIGHT)
The Tigers of the Atlantic Coast Conference under seventh year Head Coach Tommy Bowden finished last season at 6-5 SU, and 4-7 ATS. They return a strong Offense including Quarterback, Running Backs and Wide Receivers. Last year they were blown out at Texas A&M, 27-6 as one point Favorites. The Tigers won five out of their last six events SU last season, and might just surprise this year. Positive trends include 4-1 ATS at Home versus non-Conference opponents, and 3-0 ATS as Home Dogs.
The Aggies of the Big Twelve Conference under their third year Head Coach Dennis Franchione finished last regular season at 6-5 SU and ATS. Then they were blown out by Tennessee in the Cotton Bowl, 38-7 as 3.5 point Dogs. This is a reported "hot team", with 18 returning starters including Quarterback Reggie McNeal. Negative trends include 2-13 ATS on the Road versus better than average opponents, and 1-3 ATS as Road Favorites.
The line overnited at Aggies -1.5. We'll take those points and the Home Tigers here tonight in a Gold Key Play.
--Rich Green
410-536-5111 if you need help
FRIDAY SEPTEMBER 2
Gold Key Play, Arizona +7.5 Over UTAH (NCAA, 8 et) (Weather) (WINNER)
The Wildcats of the Pacific Ten Conference under their second year Head Coach Mike Stoops finished last season at 3-8 Straight Up, and 4-6 Against The Spread. They improved greatly on Defense, and figure to improve on Offense this season. They lost last year at Home in Game Two to a much better Utes team, 23-6 as 13.5 point Dogs. With cupcake Northern Arizona up next at Home for the Wildcats, we look for a good showing here tonight. Positive trends include 9-2 ATS as Dogs in Game One, and 10-2 ATS as regular season Dogs less than two TouchDowns with rest.
The Utes of the Mountain West Conference swept their schedule last year big time, and finished at 12-0 SU and 10-2 ATS including a Bowl win and cover over Pittsburgh under departed Head Coach Urban Meyer. To achieve a high BCS Ranking they ran up scores in many games, and this may come back to haunt them this season. The Utes have lost three key position Players, including Quarterback, and a replay of last year is unlikely. This game can be closer than expected.
The line overnited at Utes -9.5 and dropped. We'll take those points and the Road Wildcats here tonight in a Gold Key Play.
--Rich Green
410-536-5111 if you need help
THURSDAY SEPTEMBER 1
Gold Key Play, TULSA +17.5 Over Minnesota (NCAA, 10:15 et) (Weather) (Loser)
The Golden Hurricane of the Conference USA under their third year Head Coach Steve Kragthorpe fell back last season to 4-8 Straight Up, and 4-7 Against The Spread. Amongst the worst teams in the NCAA in 2001-2, they bounced back with an 8-4 SU regular season record and played in the Humanitarian Bowl in 2003 in Coach Kragthorpe's first year. Last year they did finish a disappointing season with two SU wins -- at Home to San Jose State and then as eight point Home Dogs over tough Utep. Under Coach Kragthorpe the Hurricanes are 5-0 ATS as Home Dogs, and this game on National TV might just be closer than expected. The higher the line moves up towards game time, the more we like this Play.
The Golden Gophers of the Big Ten Conference under long-tenured Head Coach Glen Mason started out last season with five SU wins in a row, and after finishing at 6-5 SU for the year they were named to and won the Music City Bowl over Alabama, 20-16 SU as two point Dogs. They smashed these Hurricanes to lead off the 2003 Season at Home, 49-10 as 30.5 point Favorites. With only 35 Lettermen returning and with a Revenge Game against them, the Gophers don't have to destroy the Hurricanes on the Road this evening.
The line overnited at Golden Gophers -14 and figures to get pounded by the late night TV crowd. We'll take those points and the Home Golden Hurricanes to cover for us here tonight in a Gold Key Play.
--Rich Green
410-536-5111 if you need help
FRIDAY AUGUST 26
Gold Key Play, CLEVELAND +6 Over Carolina (NFL Pre-Season, 8 et) (Weather) (WINNER)
The Browns of the AFC North under their new Head Coach Romeo Crennel have done no wrong this Pre-Season, having won Straight Up as Home Dogs over the Giants, then winning SU as Road Dogs in a Free Play Winner last week at the Lions. Last year they finished at 4-12 SU, and 6-10 Against The Spread. The Browns have an arduous task this coming season in a Division that contains the Steelers and Ravens, as well as the improving Bengals. Tonight they will try to do their best in front of some of the best fans in the world in an exhibition scrimmage. Positive trends include 9-7-1 ATS as Pre-Season Dogs, and 5-1 ATS as Pre-Season Dogs greater than a Field Goal.
The Panthers of the NFC South under their third year Head Coach John Fox finished last season at 7-9 SU, and 10-6 ATS. Injuries decimated them in a failed attempt to reach the Playoffs after a great 2003 season. So far this Pre-Season they blew out the Redskins at Home, then lost outright as Field Goal Favorites at the Giants. Traditionally the third week of the Exhibition Schedule is when teams really gear up for the coming season. There are no real negative trends for the Panthers here, although they generally are a better Play ON when getting points.
The line overnited at Panthers -3 and has been pounded. We'll take those points and the Home Browns to cover for us here tonight in a Gold Key Play.
--Rich Green
410-536-5111 if you need help
SATURDAY AUGUST 20
Gold Key Play, BUFFALO -6 Over Green Bay (NFL Pre-Season, 6 et) (Weather) (WINNER)
The Bills of the AFC East under second year Head Coach Mike Mularkey finished last season on a 6-1 Straight Up tear, and compiled a 9-7 SU and 11-5 Against The Spread record. Quarterback J. P. Losman looks to have a breakout season. The Bills have been awesome on Defense, and feature a multi-blitz attack. They look to show the Hometown faithful that last year was no fluke in this exhibition scrimmage tonight.
The Packers of the NFC North under their sixth year Head Coach Mike Sherman finished last season at 10-6 SU, and 7-8-1 ATS. Then they were promptly knocked out of their opening Playoff event at Home by the Vikings. The Packers have lost key players on both sides of the ball, but do still have future Hall of Fame Quarterback Favre at the helm. In their Pre-Season opener they won for Free Players, outright 10-7 as Field Goal Dogs at Home to the Chargers in a lackluster event. The Packers will need to improve in many categories if they expect to return to the Playoffs this season.
The line overnited at Bills -4 and moved up. We'll go with the Home Bills to cover for us here tonight in a Gold Key Play.
--Rich Green
410-536-5111 if you need help