2004 NFL AND NCAA FOOTBALL PLAYS
2004 FINAL RESULTS: 66-45
THURSDAY NOVEMBER 11
Gold Key Play, ARKANSAS STATE -6.5 Over Utah State (NCAA, 7 et) (Weather) (WINNER)
The Indians of the Sun Belt Conference under third year Head Coach Steve Roberts are 2-7 Straight Up, and 6-3 Against The Spread on the season. They only play four events at Home this year, and they are already 2-0 ATS Home including an outright win over Troy State in Game Seven, 13-9 as 14.5 point Home Dogs. The Indians were scalped 49-0 last year at the Aggies, and they might just go on the warpath this evening at Home. Positive trends include 6-0 ATS at Home with Revenge.
The Aggies enter this Conference match up under fifth year Head Coach Mike Dennehy at 2-7 SU, and 1-8 ATS on the year. They played well in Game Two at Home to Idaho, and won SU 14-7 as 13 point Favorites. They also woke up and won SU at UNLV, 31-21 as two Touchdown Dogs no less in Game Four. But other than those two events, the Aggies have shown little this season. In their last they failed to cover the 5.5 point Dog line in a 32-25 SU loss at UL-Monroe, the first Home Favorite cover for UL-Monroe since 1999. Negative trends include 0-4 ATS in their last Road games, and 0-4 ATS on the Road.
The line overnited at Indians -6 and moved up. We'll go with the Home Indians here tonight in a Gold Key Play.
--Rich Green
410-536-5111 if you need help
WEDNESDAY NOVEMBER 10
Gold Key Play, LOUISVILLE -24 Over Tcu (NCAA, 7:30 et) (Weather) (WINNER)
The Cardinals of the Conference USA under their second year Head Coach Bobby Petrino are 6-1 Straight Up and Against The Spread this season. Last week they had their first cover loss ATS when they defeated Memphis SU on the Road, 56-49 as 13.5 point Favorites. But before that the Cardinals had covered six in a row ATS. Tcu has been a sore spot for Louisville, as they were handed important defeats in the past, and are 0-3 SU and ATS so far in this Series. Positive trends include 4-0 ATS at Home.
The Horned Frogs enter this Conference match up under fourth year Head Coach Gary Patterson at an Even Stephen 4-4 SU and 2-6 ATS this year. Their lone cover wins were at Home to Smu in Game Two, 44-0 as 22.5 point Favorites, and two games back at Home to Houston, 34-27 as 6.5 point Favorites to cover via the hook. Last week they won for Gold Key Members by losing SU at Cincinnati, 21-10 as Touchdown Dogs. Negative trends include 0-9 ATS on the Road versus opponents off of back to back SU wins, 1-6 ATS as Road Dogs off a SU and ATS loss, and 0-6 ATS on the Road.
The line overnited at Cardinals -24. We'll lay the heavy wood here tonight on the Cardinals in a Gold Key Play.
--Rich Green
410-536-5111 if you need help
SUNDAY NOVEMBER 7
Gold Key Play, New England +2 Over ST. LOUIS (NFL, 4:15 et) (Dome) (WINNER, OUTRIGHT)
The Patriots of the AFC East under fifth year Head Coach Bill Belichick are 6-1 SU and 4-1-2 ATS. Last week they had their 21 game NFL Record SU win streak snapped at the Steelers, 34-20 as Field Goal Favorites. They do have injuries on both sides of the ball. But the Patriots are still the World Champions, and we are only asking them to win the game SU today. Positive trends include Coach Belichick is 45-4 ATS when his teams score greater than 24 points, and Quarterback Brady is 28-4 SU from November on out.
The Rams of the NFC West under fifth year Head Coach Mike Martz are 4-3 SU and 3-4 ATS on the season. Before last week which was their Bye Week, they had lost on the Road at the Dolphins 31-14 SU as five point Favorites after reeling off three in a row SU and ATS. The Rams do play awesome at Home, are coming off the Bye, and have a good record in this event. But they haven't faced all that great of competition and are only 4-3 SU this year. Negative trends include 0-9 ATS versus excellent opponents off a SU Favorite loss, 1-39 ATS when they lose SU, 1-27 ATS when they score less than 24 points, 2-7 off a SU Favorite loss, 4-18 ATS versus opponents in November off a SU Favorite loss, and 3-11 ATS in November when both teams are off a SU loss.
The line overnited at Patriots -2 and has moved towards the Rams. We'll take the points and the Road Patriots here today in a Gold Key Play.
Gold Key Play, Philadelphia -1 Over PITTSBURGH (NFL, 1 et) (Weather) (Loser)
The Eagles of the NFC East under sixth year Head Coach Andy Reid are 7-0 Straight Up and 5-2 Against The Spread this season. They failed to cover ATS at the Browns two weeks ago and at Home to the Ravens in a Gold Key Winner last week, but still won each game SU. The Eagles have been an excellent Road team over the past 1.5 years, and can play tough today. Positive trends include 26-3 ATS when they win SU on the Road, 8-1 ATS in the first of back to back Road games, and 47-11 ATS when they score more than 20 points.
The Steelers of the AFC North under long-tenured Head Coach Bill Cowher are 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS on the year. After failing to cover the 3.5 point Home Favorite line in the season opener to the Raiders in a 24-21 SU win, and their only SU loss of the year in Game Two at the Ravens, the Steelers have reeled off five in a row SU and ATS. They won impressively on the Road at the Cowboys and at Home over the Patriots in their last two events, but they will have to step it up here again to run with the Eagles. Negative trends include 1-3 ATS in this match up, 2-6 ATS versus the NFC East, poor ATS when the Totals line is greater than 42 points, and no team has ever won back to back games SU versus 6-0 teams or better in NFL history.
The line overnited at Eagles -1.5 and has dropped. We'll go with the Road Eagles here today in a Gold Key Play.
--Rich Green
410-536-5111 if you need help
SATURDAY NOVEMBER 6
Gold Key Play, Cincinnati +6.5 Over SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI (NCAA, 3 et) (Weather) (WINNER, OUTRIGHT)
The Bearcats of the Conference USA under their first year Head Coach Mark Dantonio are an Even Stephen 4-4 SU and 3-5 ATS. They won for Gold Key Members last week as Touchdown Home Favorites in a 21-10 SU win over Tcu. Previous to that one they blew out Memphis at Home, 49-10 SU as 4.5 point Favorites. The Bearcats played some very poor games this season, but appear in fine fettle as the season nears a close. Positive trends include 3-0 ATS on the Road in this match up, and 8-3 as Road Dogs.
The Golden Eagles enter this Conference match up under long-tenured Head Coach Jeff Bower at 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS on the season. They are coming off a Home whooping of East Carolina, 51-10 SU as 18 point Favorites. The Eagles have done little wrong this season, but this game can still be closer than expected. Negative trends include 1-5 ATS with rest.
The line overnited at Golden Eagles -5.5 and figures to move up. We'll take those points and the Road Bearcats here today in a Gold Key Play.
Gold Key Play, RICE +7.5 Over Fresno State (NCAA, 3 et) (Weather) (Loser)
The Owls of the Western Athletic Conference under long-tenured Head Coach Ken Hatfield are 3-5 Straight Up and 5-3 Against The Spread this season. They have won and covered all three Home events this year. The Owls are hard to gauge, but sure look good getting points at Home this afternoon versus a suspect team. Positive trends include 7-1-1 ATS in their second to last Home game, 15-2-1 ATS as "Pick'em" or Home Dogs, 9-1 ATS with Revenge versus Conference opponents, 2-0 ATS at Home in this match up, and 11-0-1 ATS as Conference Home Dogs.
The Bulldogs enter this Conference match up under eighth year Head Coach Pat Hill at 4-3 SU and 3-3 ATS on the year. They blew out Smu at Home in their last as big time Favorites, 42-0. But before that the Bulldogs lost all three Conference games SU and ATS, including a Gold Key Winner when UTEP defeated them SU as 17 point Dogs, 24-21. Negative trends include 3-35 ATS when they lose SU versus Conference opponents, and poor ATS stats on the Road versus teams that have lost back to back games SU.
The line overnited at Bulldogs -7.5. We'll take those points and the Home Owls here today in a Gold Key Play.
--Rich Green
410-536-5111 if you need help
FRIDAY NOVEMBER 5
Gold Key Play, AKRON +10 Over Marshall (NCAA, 7et) (Weather) (WINNER, OUTRIGHT)
The Zips of the Mid American Conference under first year Head Coach J. D. Brookhart are 4-4 Straight Up and 3-4-1 Against The Spread this season. But if we throw out their first three games, all against non-Conference opponents, they've played well. The Zips have won three in a row SU, and are 2-0-1 ATS in those events. This game can be closer than expected. Positive trends include 5-1 ATS in the second of back to back Home games, and 4-1 ATS at Home with Revenge versus opponents off a Double Digit SU win.
The Thundering Herd enter this Conference match up under long-tenured Head Coach Bob Pruett at 5-3 SU and 4-4 ATS on the year. They have won five in a row SU, but covered only two of those. The Herd is 0-2 ATS as in-Conference Road Favorites this season, and laying Double Digits here seems like no real bargain.
The line overnited at Thundering Herd -10. We'll take those points and the Home Zips here tonight in a Gold Key Play.
--Rich Green
410-536-5111 if you need help
SUNDAY OCTOBER 31
Gold Key Play, Baltimore +7.5 Over PHILADELPHIA (NFL, 1 et) (Weather) (WINNER)
The Ravens of the AFC North under sixth year Head Coach Brian Billick are 4-2 Straight Up, and Against The Spread this season. They have won and covered their last two events, on the Road at the Redskins and at Home over the Bills. The Ravens have key injuries today, especially on Offense. But other than their opening game blowout loss at the Browns, they have stayed in every game this season. Positive trends include 16-7 ATS as Road Dogs, and 11-4 ATS as Dogs greater than four points.
The Eagles of the NFC East under sixth year Head Coach Andy Reid are 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS on the year. They have handled all comers well, and finally lost a cover ATS at the Browns last week with a 34-31 SU OverTime win as Touchdown Favorites. Negative trends include 1-11 ATS as greater than Field Goal Favorites versus the AFC, and 2-11 ATS as Home Favorites after scoring more than 31 points.
The line overnited at Eagles -8.5 and dropped. We'll go with the Road Ravens here today in a Gold Key Play.
Gold Key Play, TENNESSEE -3 Over Cincinnati (NFL, 1 et) (Weather) (WINNER)
The Titans of the AFC South under long-tenured Head Coach Jeff Fisher are 2-5 SU and ATS this season. Other than an opening game SU and ATS cover at Miami, and a surprise blowout win at Green Bay, they haven't shown much this year. QB McNair is again Questionable for this event after getting roughed up last week. The Titans get a fourth chance to play well at Home today, and might just be up to the task. Positive trends include 3-1 ATS in this match up, 9-3 ATS off a Double Digit SU loss, and 15-3 ATS at Home in October versus opponents off of SU wins.
The Bengals of the AFC North under second year Head Coach Marvin Lewis are 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS this year. They shocked the world with a 23-10 SU win on MNF as 6.5 point Dogs at Home to the Broncos. But now the Bengals must focus on a team right back that needs a win as well. They failed to cover all three of their Road events this season -- all versus the AFC, in ATS losses at the Jets, Steelers and Browns. Negative trends include 0-5 ATS on the Road.
The line overnited at Titans -3. We'll go with the Home Titans here today in a Gold Key Play.
--Rich Green
410-536-5111 if you need help
SATURDAY OCTOBER 30
Gold Key Play, OHIO STATE -6.5 Over Penn State (NCAA Football, Noon et) (Weather) (WINNER)
The Buckeyes of the Big Ten Conference under fourth year Head Coach Jim Tressel are 4-3 Straight Up and 3-4 Against The Spread this season. They are coming off a 30-7 SU and ATS cover as 13.5 point Home Favorite over Indiana, a game they usually cover. Before that the Buckeyes disappeared off of the radar screen with three SU and ATS losses versus Conference foes. This is also a game they normally cover, and a Conference event they figure to be the best in before a large crowd. Positive trends include 5-0 ATS at Home in this match up, and 10-2 ATS in Game Eight. Both teams have injuries at key positions.
The Nittany Lions under Iconic Head Coach Joe Paterno are 2-5 SU and 4-3 ATS this year. They can't be expected to score much on Offense, and have lost all four of their Conference games SU so far. The Lions don't figure to put on much of a good show here today when they can stand a better chance at winning SU next week at Home to Northwestern. Negative trends include 7-40 ATS when they lose SU, and the Road team in this match up is 0-6 ATS.
The line overnited at Buckeyes -4.5 and moved up. We'll go with the Home Buckeyes here today in a Gold Key Play.
Gold Key Play, CINCINNATI -6 Over Tcu (NCAA Football, 3 et) (Weather) (WINNER)
The Bearcats of the Conference USA under first year Head Coach Mark Dantonio are 3-4 SU and 2-5 ATS this season. They have struggled all year, but came back with rest last week to blow out Memphis at Home, 49-10 SU as 4.5 point Favorite. The Bearcats have the players, they just need to put it together. They should be fresh for this event.
The Horned Frogs enter this Conference match up at 4-3 SU and 2-5 ATS under fourth year Head Coach Gary Patterson. Last week they got by Houston at Home, 34-27 SU as 6.5 point Favorites in a game they always cover ATS. But on the Road the Frogs haven't shown much, including ATS cover losses at Texas Tech, Army and UAB. These Conference rivals tend to whoop each other at Home, and it's payback time for the Bearcats who lost 43-10 at Tcu last year as Touchdown Dogs. Negative trends include 0-5 ATS on the Road.
The line overnited at Bearcats -5.5 and moved up. We'll go with the Home Bearcats here today in a Gold Key Play.
Gold Key Play, Stanford +4.5 Over UCLA (NCAA Football, 3:30 et) (Weather) (Loser)
The Cardinal of the Pacific Ten Conference under third year Head Coach Buddy Teevens are 4-3 SU and 4-2-1 ATS on the season. Last week they failed at Home as 2.5 point Favorites in a 16-13 SU and ATS loss. Their only other ATS loss on the year was at Notre Dame, a special event with no love lost between schools. This is a game the Cardinal have a 10-0 ATS record lately.
The Bruins enter this Conference match up under second year Head Coach Karl Dorrell at 4-3 SU 5-1-1 ATS this year. After their first game at Home, they have played well in each event. But the Bruins have still lost two games SU in a row, Road games at California and Arizona State. This game against a potent rival won't get much easier for them.
The line overnited at Bruins -6 and dropped. We'll take those points and the Road Cardinal here today in a Gold Key Play.
--Rich Green
410-536-5111 if you need help
THURSDAY OCTOBER 28
Gold Key Play, GEORGIA TECH +5.5 Over Virginia Tech (NCAA, 7:30 PM et) (Weather) (Loser)
The Yellow Jackets of the Atlantic Coast Conference under third year Head Coach Chan Gailey are 4-2 Straight Up and 2-3 Against The Spread this season. They have a little extra rest, and are coming off SU wins and ATS Covers at Home over Duke and on the Road at Maryland. The Yellow Jackets also showed a good effort at Clemson getting 6.5 points and winning SU 28-24 in Game Two. Positive trends include 11-2 ATS as Home Dogs greater than two points off back to back SU wins.
The Hokies enter this Conference match up under long-tenured Head Coach Frank Beamer at 5-2 SU and 4-2 ATS on the season. This is only their second Road event, and they covered ATS at Wake Forest in a 17-10 SU win as six point Favorite. Before that the Hokies were 0-5 ATS as Road Favorites. Negative trends include 4-17 ATS as Favorites from Game Six out. This game can be a good one if both teams play up to their potential.
The line overnited at Hokies -5.5. We'll take those points and the Home Yellow Jackets here tonight in a Gold Key Play.
--Rich Green
410-536-5111 if you need help
SUNDAY OCTOBER 24
Gold Key Play, KANSAS CITY -3.5 Over Atlanta (NFL, 1 et) (Weather) (WINNER)
The Chiefs of the AFC West under their fourth year Head Coach Dick Vermeil are 1-4 Straight Up and Against The Spread this season. After a Bye Week, they came back last week and faltered late in a 22-16 SU loss at the Jaguars as 2.5 point Favorites. The Chief's Defense has improved steadily, and they will surely be put to the task this afternoon. Their Offense should be able to put some points on the board today with Home Cookin'. After SU losses at Home to the Panthers and Texans this season, the Chiefs hope the third time is the charm to win at Home. Positive trends include 58-12 ATS when they score 21 points or more, the SU winner in Chief's Home games is 47-6 ATS, 14-2 ATS when they score more than 24 points versus non-Division opponents, and 6-2 ATS versus NFC opponents in October.
The Falcons of the NFC South under first year NFL Head Coach Jim Mora, Jr. enter this contest at 5-1 SU, and 2-4 ATS. Last week they came back at Home versus the Chargers after trailing by 10 points to win 21-20 SU as 5.5 point Favorites. So far on the Road this season the Falcons won their opener SU but failed ATS at the 49'ers, 21-19 as Field Goal Favorites, and won SU and ATS at the Panthers as 3.5 point Dogs, 27-10. Negative trends include 1-7 ATS on the Road versus the AFC.
The line overnited at Chiefs -4 and figures to drop. We'll go with the Home Chiefs here today in a Gold Key Play.
Gold Key Play, Under 44.5 Total Points, Dallas at GREEN BAY (NFL, 4:15 et) (Weather) (Loser)
The Cowboys of the NFC East under long-tenured NFL Head Coach Bill Parcells enter this event at 2-3 SU and ATS this year. Last week they fumbled late to lose SU and ATS at Home to the Steelers, 24-20 as Field Goal Favorites. The Cowboys have not scored more than 21 points this season in any game, including only 10 points at Home to the Giants and 17 points on the Road at the Vikings. Their Defense must step up today to give them a chance to compete.
The Packers of the NFC North under their fifth year Head Coach Mike Sherman are 2-4 SU and ATS on the season. Last week they came through for Gold Key Members by scoring 38 points to help send the Total Over the line with a SU and ATS win at the Lions. The Packers played well on Defense in that one by giving up only 10 points, and they also allowed only 14 points at Home to the Giants in Game Four, and allowed only 14 points at the Panthers in their opener. This game can be lower scoring than expected.
The Totals line overnited at 44.5. We'll go with the Under here today in a Gold Key Play.
--Rich Green
410-536-5111 if you need help
SATURDAY OCTOBER 23
Gold Key Play, MINNESOTA -19 Over Illinois (NCAA, 2 et) (Dome) (WINNER)
The Golden Gophers of the Big Ten Conference under seventh year Head Coach Glen Mason enter this contest at 5-2 SU and ATS. They were blown out at Michigan State last week, 51-17 SU as eight point Dogs. Previous to that one they lost SU at Michigan 27-24 but covered the 3.5 point Dog line ATS. At Home this season the Gophers blew out Toledo, Illinois State and Northwestern, but failed to cover the 16.5 point Favorite line at Home to Penn State in a 16-7 SU win. They figure to bounce back today at Home after last week's debacle. Positive trends include 5-1 ATS at Home in this match up, and 5-2 ATS as Double Digit Home Favorites.
The Fighting Illini enter this Conference match up under long-tenured Head Coach Ron Turner at 2-5 SU, and 2-4 ATS this year. They covered the 17.5 Dog line ATS at Home to Michigan last week in a 30-19 SU loss. Previous to that one the Illini won for Gold Key Members by losing 38-25 SU and ATS at Michigan State as 8.5 point Dogs. They also failed to cover their only other Road event in a 24-7 SU and ATS loss at Wisconsin as 14.5 point Dogs. Negative trends include 1-5 ATS on the Road in this match up, 0-5 ATS as Road Dogs versus competition off of back to back SU losses, 1-8 ATS off of a Double Digit SU loss, and 1-6 ATS as Road Dogs.
The line overnited at Golden Gophers -19. We'll lay the heavy wood here today on the Gophers in a Gold Key Play.
Gold Key Play, Northwestern +12 Over WISCONSIN (NCAA, Noon et) (Weather) (Push)
The Wildcats of the Big Ten Conference under sixth year Head Coach Randy Walker are 3-3 Straight Up and Against The Spread this season. Their three ATS losses were at Home to tough Arizona State in a 30-21 SU loss in a Pick'em event, at Minnesota in a 43-17 SU blowout as 13 point Dogs, and in their last in a 31-24 SU win in OverTime as 11 point Home Favorites over Indiana. The Wildcats covered ATS at TCU as 5.5 point Dogs in a 48-45 SU loss, at Home to Kansas in a 20-17 SU win as two point Favorites, and at Home over Ohio State 33-27 SU as 11 point Dogs. Positive trends include 6-1 ATS with rest, 4-2 ATS as Road Dogs, and 6-1 ATS in this match up.
The Badgers enter this Conference match up under long-tenured Head Coach Barry Alvarez at 7-0 SU, and 5-2 ATS. They have won and covered their last four games, all of their Conference match ups -- versus Penn State, Illinois, at Ohio State and at Purdue. The Badgers have a terrific Defense, but have not put more than 24 points on the board versus Conference rivals. This game can be closer than expected today.
The line overnited at Badgers -13 and dropped. We'll take those points and the Road Wildcats here today in a Gold Key Play.
Gold Key Play, Utep +2 Over LOUISIANA TECH (NCAA, 3 et) (Weather) (WINNER, OUTRIGHT)
The Miners of the Western Athletic Conference under their first year Head Coach Mike Price are 4-2 SU and 4-1 ATS this season. In their last two games they came through for Gold Key Members -- 51-20 SU as Field Goal Favorites at Home to Hawaii, and 24-21 outright as 17 point Dogs at Fresno State before that one. We'll continue to allow the Miners to butter our bread. Positive trends include 6-0 ATS on the Road with Revenge, and 3-0 ATS versus Conference rivals.
The Bulldogs enter this Conference match up under sixth year Head Coach Jack Bicknell at 3-3 SU, and 2-4 ATS. They scheduled a tough early season with Road events at Miami, Tennessee and Auburn, and were blown out in each. But the Bulldogs have won and covered their two Conference match ups -- at Home to Fresno State in a 28-21 SU win as 14.5 point Dogs, and in their last at SMU in a 41-10 SU blowout win as eight point Favorites. Negative trends include 1-9 ATS after scoring more than 35 points, 2-10-1 ATS after an ATS cover, and 2-7 ATS as Conference Favorites.
The line overnited at Bulldogs -2. We'll take those points and the Road Miners here today in a Gold Key Play.
--Rich Green
410-536-5111 if you need help
THURSDAY OCTOBER 21
Gold Key Play, WEST VIRGINIA -15 Over Syracuse (NCAA, 7:30 et) (Weather) (WINNER)
The Mountaineers of the Big East Conference under fourth year Head Coach Rich Rodriguez are 5-1 Straight Up, and 3-2 Against The Spread this season. So far they won and covered at Home to East Carolina, and on the Road at Central Florida and UConn. They defeated James Madison at Home SU in an unlined event. The Mountaineers got by Maryland 19-16 SU in OverTime at Home, but failed to cover the six point Favorite Line. In their only SU loss they failed at Virginia Tech in a 19-13 ATS loss as 3.5 point Dogs. Positive trends include 5-1 ATS in weekday events, and the Favorite in this Series is 9-2-1 ATS.
The Orange enter this Conference match up under long-tenured Head Coach Paul Pasqualoni at 3-3 SU, and 5-1 ATS. After getting blown out at Purdue to start the season, they have covered their last five games in a row ATS. The Orange played very well in their last event 11 days ago at Home in a 17-13 SU loss to Florida State, easily covering the 18 point Dog line. Negative trends include 0-3 ATS and the Dog is 3-12-1 ATS in this match up, 4-40 ATS when they lose SU on the Road, 6-23 ATS as Road Dogs versus excellent opponents, 2-16 ATS as Conference Road Dogs, and 1-8 ATS as Dogs with rest.
The line overnited at Mountaineers -14.5 and moved up. We'll lay the heavy wood with the Mountaineers here tonight in a Gold Key Play.
--Rich Green
410-536-5111 if you need help